Tag Archives: elections

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My post mortem on the Trump candidacy

Donald Trump was never in the 2012 presidential campaign for the long haul.  I am not saying he had no interest in being president, I think he did.  He probably still does.  But this is my take of how this all went down.

 The 2012 campaign began almost the day after the election in 2008 but it really started up after the 2010 campaign.  Speculation about who was going to run on the GOP side seemed to be everywhere.  If there is anyone who understand the adage that “no press is bad press,” it’s Mr. Trump.  I grew up on Long Island where we seemed to get a ring side seat to the Trump Show.  I think he had been asked to do this and thought his campaign would be credible; a credible stunt.    Now, because he has a considerable ego, had been considering this, maybe his real interest was at 10 percent.  Anyone who has worked on a presidential campaign has seen the cottage industry that springs up when someone looks like they are running for president.  Would be candidates end up surrounded by a growing chorus of people telling him to run.  I used to wonder about candidates who have no chance, do they have no one in their life who can tell them this is a bad idea?  No, no there is not.

 So after a bit of this, Mr. Trump’s seriousness may have grown but I can guarantee that he did some checking into this – before he announced he was looking into it – and one of the very first things he would have learned,  was that he would have to release his financials and anyone who has ever really followed his career understands that this was never going past the summer.  Add to that his discomfort at shaking hands (a campaign must-do) and hatred of being seriously questioned (another campaign must-do) and you’ve got your three strikes.

 I think Mr. Trump started this thinking it would get decent press and raise ratings (can they ever be too high?  Not to him).  He starts out talking about the issues that he thinks makes him a credible candidate – the economy and our relationship with China.  He makes progress in the polls but the progression is more of a stable growing of support (good for politics, not so much for TV ratings) but not the meteoric rise he was looking for (bad for a campaign of a year and a half but good for TV ratings).  What’s been the hottest topic for many on the right?  President Obama’s birth certificate.  Mr. Trump takes a hard turn right and into loonie land, his polls numbers soar and the media eats this up like crazy.

 Note to the news media:  you have what, 17 months left of this campaign to cover?  Ask yourselves if you took his candidacy more seriously – or claimed to – to give you an excuse to cover something interesting.  If your answer is that he repeated (over and over and over) how serious he was – his stunt would not have worked without that.  If you really believed this, you would take Chris Christie at his word when he tries to make that same claim the other way.  Oh, and I also have a bridge in Brooklyn that you might be interested in.

 With his poll & ratings numbers soaring (not sure about his actual show but he dominated the 24 hour news cycle), the White House sees some of the crazy rhetoric is having an effect on what average people were starting to think about the President’s place of birth.  They release the long form certificate.  Mr. Trump is a allowed a small victory lap before his Icarus (thank you Chris Cillizza) candidacy crashes to earth.  We all know what happened next, Mr. Trump is eviscerated a few days later at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner and to add that last nail, his NBC show is interrupted by the announcement that President Obama caught and killed Osama bin Laden.  Done.

 I would like to draw a clear comparison between this media type candidacy and that of Mike Huckabee.  Governor Huckabee was the clear front runner, which means as much as that can in 1.5 years out.  He also wanted to be president but this is a long grueling process.  One thing I always try to remind people about campaigns is that there are two things that you always run out of.  While you can theoretically make more money (as hard as that is), you can’t get more time.  Once the race starts, you get a finite amount and that’s all you get.  I think he looked at his life and weighed the real chances – even locking in the GOP nod would not guarantee him the prize, and it probably just seemed to be too much.  I am only laying all that out to show just how genuine his reasons for ending his campaign were.  No, Cenk Uygur, he did not “get too fat and happy to run.”  That’s just petty and mean.

 PS.  Dear Mr. Trump, this might be a good time to revisit that plan you had to save the Mets.  That’s a financial/sad situation that really might need you.

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It’s all about expectations

Our national pastime is not baseball, though I wish it was. Our national pastime is building people up to bring them back down. As Jon Stewart said on his iconic Crossfire appearance, “I don’t know much about democracy, I have only lived in this country” I don’t know if this is something other cultures do. We love it.

Britney Spears. Lindsay Lohan. Barack Obama. Even DC Mayor Adrian Fenty.

1. Mayor Fenty – possibly a victim of his own success, was a phenom. The youngest mayor in DC history, he was the post-racial symbol of how far the city had come. From several decades ago when there was no ‘home rule’ to Marion Barry, this has been a wild ride. And Marion Barry had a tagline before ‘the bitch set me up.’ Before he said that, he was popular for creating jobs. His later mantra was one of redemption; a message too many people here can relate to. And then we got Anthony Williams. Maybe Adrian Fenty is as much a victim of Anthony Williams’ competence as his own. It should be noted that Mr. Williams was not perfect either – he had to be write in candidate when his campaign workers could not procure enough legal signatures – but he was a good mayor. “At least he’s not a crack head,” was no longer good enough. And then we all met Adrian Fenty. Sporting three blackberries he seemed really interested in a dialogue with the city. I was moving when he approached me. I was impressed and went out of my way to vote for him. My expectations were too high. He was a good mayor and yet I voted for Vincent Grey because, as I told WJLA, Mayor Fenty was not the person I expected him to be. Despite the fact that the schools got better, crime went down and the city has a great new bike program. I just didn’t like him. Sorry.

2. President Barack Obama faces a similar dilemma. He promised ‘change you can believe in’ and people expected monumental things. He has actually delivered. Remember, when he entered the White House he had a series of what I like to call ‘Himalayan problems’ – each one is gigantic alone but seen with the others, they appear smaller. The worst economy since the Depression. Two wars. Global warming. The Gulf spill. And he got heath care reform passed. He got financial reform passed. He may have saved the economy with stimulus that was a third tax cuts, not that anyone knows that. He may be able to blame Bill Clinton for his problems. I always said Bill Clinton may have been Al Gore’s biggest problem; and not for the reasons you are thinking. Bill Clinton is brilliant. Absolutely, amazingly brilliant. The problem he is also ‘Bubba’ — the guy who feels your pain and you want to have a beer with. Do not, even for a millisecond, this that is criticism, I would jump in front of a bullet for Bill Clinton. The problem is that many voters in 2000 saw Al Gore and George W. Bush as Bill Clinton split in two; you had the nerd who knew everything and the normal guy you wanted to hang with. We all know how that movie ended. And so as our nation faces this great dilemma, one of the worst crises since our inception, we don’t want a professor – though we need one – we want a guy who gets us. We expected an inspirational figure and we got an intellectual.

3. George W. Bush may have been the best thing to happen for people on the right. I made fun of him as much as anyone, it was easy. At the end of the day, George W. Bush is not the idiot the left made him out to be. Did you know he got better grades at Yale than Senator Kerry? Look it up. He is so smart because he maybe the political equivalent of Keyser Soze, whose greatest gift (or it was the devil) was ‘convincing the world he didn’t exist.’ He made us all believe that if he showed up somewhere and didn’t drool on himself, he had done good that day. And what has that legacy been? Sarah Palin, Christine O’Donnell and Rand Paul. Oh, and Sharon Angle. There are others but it makes me to depressed to think about it. The left dismisses these candidates at our peril.

And so it’s all about building people up to tear them down. I both love that and hate it. Being human, and one of the snarkiest people I know, I kind of like it when some arrogant person gets what they deserve. Being someone who supports competency in government, it bothers me because President Obama has done some amazing things and gotten no real credit while George W. Bush sent us to a war we didn’t need and destroyed the economy but rather than going grey with worry like Obama, he gets to play golf all day. It’s not fair.

Of course, neither is life and that’s why I don’t regret my vote for Vincent Grey. Hope my expectations for him are low enough for me not to be disappointed.

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I hate Arianna

Everybody loves Arianna Huffington.  Except for me.  For some reason, writing that makes me think of the Flanders song on The Simpsons:

“Hens love roosters.  Geese love ganders.  Everyone else loves Ned Flanders.

Not me. (Homer)

Everyone who counts loves Ned Flanders.”

I don’t like Arianna, and have a really hard time reading the insufferable Huffington Post, because I don’t trust her.  Sure, she seems like a good liberal/progressive today.  Today, on September 20th, 2010, Arianna was on Hardball dutifully playing a reasonable person.  One might totally forget her history – most seem to have – but I am not in that group.  I remember her history.

My personal history with her is long.  No, I have never met her but she was a big part of the start of my career.  And yes, I apparently hold grudges.  My experience with her started in 1994 but to get a full picture you need to go back further than that.

Arianna Huffington (née Stassinopoulos) was born in Greece.  In 1960, she moved to the United States.  One of the first things she was known for (here, she hosted a show in Britain before moving here) was dating Jerry Brown.  You know, the liberal.

Mrs. Huffington later married Michael Huffington, a Republican.  The couple moved to Santa Barbara in 1992 so that he could run for the House of Representatives.  He won.  She not only campaigned for her husband but she debated his opponent in his place.  In 1994, the duo ran one of the most expensive campaigns in US history (at the time) to unseat Senator Dianne Feinstein.  Almost $32 million later ($28 million of his own), Michael Huffington almost became a Senator.  That was the year I got my first job in politics.  I was  a press intern for Senator Feinstein.  Most of the time I love elections because they have outcomes that are pretty quick and decisive.  You know (usually, the country learned the lesson I learned that year in 2000 when hanging chads entered our collective vernacular) on election night if you won or lost.  Not in 1994, that election was so close that it was determined by absentee ballots.  This was a painful time for Senator Feinstein because she lost the California gubernatorial race in 1990 because of the same thing.

This was also a painful month for Senator Feinstein’s staff.  The Huffingtons made this worse.  I do not fault either of them for fighting the election night outcome; that’s normal.  I fault them for the incredibly poor sportsmanship they showed in the months between that night and when they finally gave up –I believe it was January when they did.  I could look it up but I want this account to be as much from memory as possible.  Congressman Huffington positioned himself in the path between where Senator Feinstein was sworn in to her office; he was giving a press interview (I was there, I saw it).  He was seen riding the “Senators Only” elevators (not as elitist as they seem, it’s to allow them to get to the Capitol in time for votes).  Arianna was seen measuring offices and picking out furniture.  At least once (when I was there anyway), they walked by our office and waved.  Classy.

The Huffingtons split up because he is gay.  There is nothing wrong with being gay.  Arianna is an immigrant.  There is nothing wrong with being an immigrant.  It is, however, incredibly hypocritical to run a campaign based on discriminating against homosexuals and immigrants when you are both.  It is pretty inexcusable if you aren’t but there I cannot forgive Arianna for supporting Proposition 187 (the anti immigration ballot initiative that would have prevented the children of immigrants from attending public schools).  Yes, Arianna, I kind of wished that had passed.  If only we could have made it retroactive to the day before you got here.  Do I sound bitter?  Kind of.

Once she was on her own, Arianna went on a crusade against the media.  She became a conservative columnist/panelist.  She wanted to start a show Beat the Press.  She hosted a show with Al Franken where she was the conservative and he was the liberal.  I think it was called Strange Bedfellows.  I still haven’t forgiven Franken for that.

And then it gets interesting.  Arianna started the Huffington Post. To whom did she turn for help?  Andrew Breitbart.  You may remember him.  He’s the rabid, Tea Bagger whose web site ‘broke’ the Acorn scandal last year.  He’s a peach.  And yet, I have fewer problems with him than Arianna.  Say what you want about Breitbart; he’s honest about his agenda and position.

So I don’t like Arianna.  It bothers me to no end that her web site is given so much weight and influence. I don’t trust the liberal turned conservative turned liberal.  No self-respecting progressive should.

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If it is Sunday, it is TV time

My Sunday morning ritual, and I may have posted this before is simple — I watch the Chris Matthews show (Religiously, if I miss an episode not only does my day get off to a bad start but my week seems to suck, too. And as I have said before, I need my Chris Matthews fix so when he was ill last winter/fall/whenever it was or when they give him a vacation, he does deserve them, his shows are different and I cannot watch and suffer a minor depression until he returns.), then Meet the Press then Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer.  I do a lot of channel surfing throughout the morning and afternoon and inevitably I get all worked up and frequently yell at the TV.  This morning was no exception.

 

C-Span showed the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings with Atty General Alberto Gonzales and I got to see some of that and recorded what I missed — I do leave the house from time to time and did so this afternoon.  What I saw was appalling.  Whether he was lying to the committee about what he knew, which is against the law, or if he really did not remember everything he claims to have forgotten, neither make this situation better.  In fact, the more he spoke the clearer it became that the line between where the White House ends and the DoJ begins seems to have disappeared completely during this administration.  While all Executive Branch agencies are going to change somewhat with each administration, they need to maintain some separate identity to be able to carry out their work.  No where is this more true than at the Justice Department.  That partisan politics may have altered which cases were pursued and how is appalling.  Some may call me naïve and insist this is just 'politics as usual.' That should not change our outrage at this lack of respect for our system of government.

 

Vive la France!

 

Across the ocean, in the country everyone loves to hate, except me — I LOVE  FRANCE, history may be made there.  Believe it or not, OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE ELECTIONS and more THEY ARE NOT ALWAYS DUE TO US INTERVENTION, though I have read our campaign style has crept into their campaigns, we'll have to wait and see how that works out for them.  Better, I hope. For those who have not been watching, French candidates Nicolas Sarkozy (conservative) and Segolene Royal (liberal) got the top votes on 22 April and will face each other in a runoff election on 6 May (LA Times):

 

            "On a warm sunny day, voters in shorts, sunglasses and other casual attire stood in long lines caused by a turnout of about 86%, the highest since 1981. Some first-time voters needed help with the process.

            The high turnout reflected intense interest in a particularly suspenseful and significant election…

            Nationwide voter registration rose by more than 4 million since 2002. The Socialist Party carried out a vigorous get-out-the vote drive to avoid being blindsided again by an upstart candidate as in 2002."

Personally, as a liberal and a woman I am pulling for Ms. Royal — she would be the first female president of and that would be fantastic on many levels.  It is also amazing to see such a high voter turn out, one not marred with the polling problems we have at each election.  Lines, it seems to me they are always worse in poorer areas, were so long at polling places that many people went home because they could not afford to stay and wait.  Election day should be a holiday but back to France, where we might see we have a lot more in common with them than we think. This description of the French electorate looks eerily familiar:

           

"The country suffers from the fastest-growing public debt in , high unemployment, entrenched protectionism, a bloated public sector and concerns about both immigration and the failure to integrate ethnic Arab and African populations…

            Voters “clearly marked their wish to go to the end of the debate between two ideas of the nation, two projects for society, two value systems, two concepts of politics,” Mr. Sarkozy said.

            More than an hour later, Ms. Royal appeared before a rally in the Poitou-Charentes region, where she is regional president, promising to change , but softly.

            Many French people, she said, “do not want a ruled by the law of the strongest or the most brutal, sewn-up by financial interests, where all powers are concentrated in the same few hands.” She added, “I am a free woman, as you are a free people.”"(The New York Times)

 

One thing that struck me was the desire to change the way the government is viewed and how similar the issues are. More on 6 May!

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